InfluenceMap research reveals a new playbook from the oil and gas sector to block climate action through the Pathways Alliance (Pathways), a coalition of Canadian oil sands companies. Through the Alliance, companies brand themselves as climate-conscious entities and publicly promote technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) as a cover to weaken and block climate policy. Critically, the analysis shows that the optimistic messaging on CCS promoted publicly by Pathways is contradicted by a notable lack of confidence in CCS technology to achieve climate goals, as revealed from the sector’s correspondence with policymakers.
Pathways was launched in June 2021 as a coalition of six oil sands companies in Canada with a stated goal “to achieve net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from oil sands operations by 2050.” The group is comprised of Canadian Natural, Cenovus, ConocoPhillips, Imperial Oil, MEG Energy, and Suncor. In the three years since its launch, Pathways has become one of the most prominent voices of Canada’s oil industry, influencing policy and public opinion around climate change and the oil and gas sector’s role in the energy transition.
Pathways has attempted to position itself as a climate-friendly oil sands brand in the eyes of the public and policymakers through massive advertising and sponsorship campaigns and policy engagement. While its messaging to the public focuses on the climate commitments of the oil sands companies, its engagement with policymakers promotes claims such as the 'climate benefits' of Canadian oil production, which clearly conflict with the scientific guidance of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
One of the key tactics of the group is to promote CCS technologies to the public and policymakers. Pathways advocates for government funding for the development of CCS to decarbonize upstream oil production from the oil sands, primarily the reduction of scope 1 and 2 emissions. However, it does not acknowledge the scope 3 emissions that arise during the final use of fossil fuels, which is one of the largest points of emissions in the energy sector.
Despite overwhelming advocacy for CCS, Pathways has raised contradictory concerns about the reliability of CCS technologies in more direct communications with policymakers and has opposed government mandates for CCS. To the government, the group has emphasized the “uncertainty” and “technology readiness” of CCS applications and claimed that the use of CCS in certain oil sands applications are “among some of the most economically challenged emission reduction projects.”
Pathways’ advocacy on Canada’s federal climate regulations is highly negative, in clear contrast with the climate-conscious brand it has attempted to build. The group has advocated for the withdrawal of the Oil & Gas Emissions Cap, attempted to weaken oil and gas sector methane regulations, and advocated for delays and exemptions in the Clean Electricity Regulations.
Canada’s oil sands represent the world’s third-largest proven oil reserve with over 166.3 billion barrels of oil, comprising 97% of Canada’s proven oil reserves. The nature of oil deposits and the production processes in oil sands make it a highly emissions-intensive sector of the Canadian economy, far more than conventional oil, per barrel of oil. A 2020 report by Environment and Climate Change Canada found that between 1990 and 2018, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from oil sands production increased by 456%.
Overall, the Canadian oil and gas sector accounted for 28% of Canada’s national emissions in 2021, including 13% attributable to oil sands operations alone. To tackle energy sector emissions and make progress under the country's 2030 Emission Reduction Plan, the Canadian government has proposed a range of policies. In 2021, it proposed the CCUS Investment Tax Credit to incentivize the adoption of CCUS across industrial sectors. In August 2023, it proposed the Clean Electricity Regulations, which set emissions performance standards for electricity generation units, including the units in oil sands facilities. In December 2023, Canada proposed new regulations to reduce methane emissions from the oil and gas sector as well as the Oil & Gas Emissions Cap to limit the sector’s emissions at 35 to 38% below 2019 levels in 2030.
Pathways was launched in June 2021 as the ‘Oil Sands Pathways to Net Zero’ by five Canadian oil sands producers: Canadian Natural, Cenovus, Imperial Oil, MEG Energy, and Suncor. ConocoPhillips, the sixth member, joined in December 2021. The initial press release states that the Pathways' goal is “to achieve net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from oil sands operations by 2050 to help Canada meet its climate goals, including its Paris Agreement commitments and 2050 net zero aspirations.” In the three years since its launch, Pathways has become one of the most prominent voices in Canada’s oil industry, influencing policy and public opinion around climate change and the oil and gas sector’s role in the energy transition. Using a variety of engagement tactics ranging from specific policy advocacy to unprecedented advertising, the group's influence rivals that of established oil and gas industry groups such as the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP).
The activities of the Pathways reflect a wider trend among global oil and gas interests to publicly position themselves as positive actors in the fight against climate change — in clear contrast with a decades-long campaign by industry to block climate action, despite knowing about the impacts of fossil fuels. Previous InfluenceMap research identified oil and gas messaging strategies as they relate to the energy transition.
A December 2022 InfluenceMap report analyzed documents from the International Gas Union (IGU) detailing how the industry developed a global messaging playbook of regionally specific communication strategies to promote fossil gas based on the “environmental consciousness” of the market. This strategy emerged as a response to global concern on climate change which the IGU described as “potentially existential for the global natural gas value chain.”
InfluenceMap's September 2022 Big Oil report found that in 2021, 60% of public communication materials from the largest five publicly traded oil and gas companies in the world attempted to present the industry as aligned with the transition, despite only 12% of their collective capital expenditure forecasted for "low carbon" activities.
InfluenceMap’s December 2023 report showed how the oil and gas sector is highly engaged on carbon capture and storage (CCS), although most of the industry messaging on CCS is not aligned with the latest guidance from the IPCC on CCS. Despite this increasing volume of climate communications from the sector, there appears to be little genuine action in that direction. Most oil and gas companies continue to weaken and oppose climate action and undertake policy advocacy and investment decisions based on business-as-usual assumptions. Notably, several large oil and gas companies have rolled back their emissions reduction targets in the face of increasing profits in 2023.
This briefing builds on the above research using data from InfluenceMap's LobbyMap database to summarize the climate policy engagement of the Pathways and its member companies over the last three years, since the group's inception. While this is a specific study of Pathways, it highlights the emergence of a new climate playbook from the oil and gas sector in Canada and beyond. It outlines a step-by-step strategy seemingly deployed by the group — as well as the inherent contradictions in these strategies — to influence the policy landscape in Canada and ultimately weaken the country's policy response to climate change.
InfluenceMap analysis of Pathways' climate policy engagement reveals a three-step playbook to drive public opinion in favor of the oil industry, with each step building on the success of previous:
And finally, after ensuring technological fixes are considered a key mitigation technology for emissions reduction, successfully advocate against the emissions regulations proposed by the Canadian government.
Pathways officially launched in June 2021 as a climate-focused oil industry alliance, likely aiming to differentiate itself from the traditionally climate-hostile industry groups in Canada.
Pathways has acknowledged climate change as a “critical challenge” and recognizes the oil and gas industry’s role in the climate crisis. It positions itself as working collectively for net-zero emissions and emphasizes its commitment to “government collaboration” and investments in “new and existing technology, research, and ongoing energy-efficiency projects.” The group’s pro-climate communications contrasts with the typically hardline positions adopted by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), the main oil and gas industry group in Canada. For example, while Pathways recognizes climate science, CAPP appears to cast uncertainty over it.
Nevertheless, Pathways shares many of the same members as CAPP: five out of the six Pathways member companies are members of CAPP, with Canadian Natural, Suncor, and Imperial Oil having board membership in CAPP. Pathways member Cenovus’ most recent President, Alex Pourbaix, was Chair of CAPP’s Board while the company’s current President, Jon McKenzie, serves as CAPP’s Vice Chair.
There appears to be notable overlaps between these two groups in policy engagement: Pathways and Cenovus have endorsed CAPP’s positions, which tend to be a severe stance against regulation, in direct engagement with the government, as in the case of federal methane regulations in 2024. Pathways has also convened with other oil industry players in opposition to the Oil and Gas Emissions Cap. Thus, despite seemingly seeking to strike a more climate-positive tone than CAPP, there appears to be a clear overlap in the two groups’ advocacy strategies.
Pathways has launched campaigns to strongly promote the oil sands sector, including an advertising strategy featuring digital and physical ads across regions and platforms.
InfluenceMap analysis found 114 ads on Facebook (Meta) with 40,308,952 impressions and ad spend of CAD $460,693.0 in 2023. These ads focus on the oil sands sector’s climate commitments. Additionally, as per the Pathways website, the group also appears to have directly engaged with the public through community information sessions on its climate plans, promoting these events through Meta advertising. For instance, an ad announcing a November 2023 information session on the Oil Sands Emissions Reduction Plan and Carbon Capture Network registered 100,000-125,000 impressions.
In August 2023, DeSmog reported advertisements attached to buses, trams, rental bikes, and bus shelters in several cities in Canada. The group has also sponsored commercials broadcast alongside the FIFA World Cup, the Australian Open, and the 2023 Super Bowl, per a report by Canada’s National Observer in July 2023. An April 2024 article by National Observer reported that sponsored content from Pathways topped the search results on Google, with "hundreds of search keywords" purchased by the group to "direct those curious about climate change to oilsands content."
Pathways’ messaging attempts to convince policymakers on the 'climate benefits' of Canadian oil production, using claims around the positive contribution of the sector to tackling climate change that appears to contradict science-based guidance, all while advocating for greater production.
In a submission to the federal government in October 2022, Pathways advocated for investments and increased production from the oil sands, claiming that if the sector can reduce the carbon intensity of oil production, Canada should increase oil production “even if global market demand, as a whole, begins to decline.” Another submission to the government in October 2022 claimed that energy produced by “stable, democratic countries” is “committed to addressing climate change.”
These claims have also been reinforced in individual comments by member companies. In June 2023, executives from Suncor and Cenovus echoed these claims in a federal committee consultation. Suncor stated that the company sees a role for oil if emissions from the value chain can be reduced. Cenovus requested that the committee conclude that “energy transition does not mean a transition off of oil and gas production in Canada” but “a transition to the low-carbon production of these resources, enabling Canada to be the global oil and gas supplier of choice.” However, this support for an oil-heavy energy pathway contradicts the latest climate science from the IPCC, which recommends the urgent need to reduce global fossil fuel use to meet the 1.5C temperature goal.
The first step of the Pathways' playbook advertises the commitment from the oil sands sector to climate action. This attempt to create a climate-positive oil and gas sector brand in the eyes of the public and policymakers is aided by massive advertising and sponsorship campaigns, using misleading claims that contrast with scientific guidance. The second step encompasses the group's attempts to secure government financing by pushing carbon capture and storage technologies as part of the climate agenda.
Pathways heavily promotes carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies in the majority of its communications about the oil sands sector's climate commitments. The group's messages to policymakers and the public on CCS portray the technology as the primary solution to decarbonize the oil industry. As such, it has enabled the sector to push CCS technologies as part of the climate agenda and advocate for significant financing for CCS projects.
Pathways promotes the use of CCS for the decarbonization of upstream oil production from the oil sands, primarily the reduction of scope 1 and 2 emissions.
Pathways’ advocacy in support of CCS focuses primarily on government subsidies to encourage the development of CCS in the oil sands sector, including the CCUS Investment Tax Credit. In December 2022 testimony, Pathways Vice-President Mark Cameron advocated for federal government funding to cover up to 70% of the Pathways members’ proposed $75 billion CCS project that includes building a 400-kilometre pipeline, a carbon sequestration area, and 16 carbon capture facilities. In another testimony to a federal government committee in October 2023, Cameron supported the CCS tax credit, stating that the technology is “probably the single biggest emissions reduction opportunity Canada has.”
Pathways' website describes its primary goal as reducing GHG emissions from oil sands with the "ultimate goal of net zero emissions by 2050 (scope 1 & scope 2 emissions)." The group’s ads sponsored on Meta, accessed through the Meta Ad Library, promote CCS to meet net zero and frequently feature messages such as “Carbon capture: a key step to net zero,” “progress toward net-zero emissions,” “Carbon capture is a big step on the oil sand’s path to net zero,” and “CCS is a big step.” Pathways’ promotion of CCS solely for oil production emissions contradicts the latest scientific guidance from the IPCC on decarbonizing the energy sector. While the IPCC 2022 Mitigation of Climate Change report recognizes the need for CCS technology, it notes the need for a significant reduction in fossil fuel use with only a limited and/or targeted role for fossil fuel with CCS in the 2050 energy mix.
The Pathways' communications supporting climate action focus on using CCS to reduce emissions associated with fossil fuel production in the oil sands. For instance, an October 2022 brief to a government committee claimed that “there is no one solution to net zero oil production” and proposed the use of CCS, improving “efficiencies,” and “emerging technologies to lead world to net zero oil production.” However, the group does not acknowledge other key sources of emissions from the sector, mainly those that arise during the final use of fossil fuels in electricity generation, transport, industry, and buildings. Pathways therefore fails to account for one of the largest points of emissions in the energy sector. According to the International Energy Agency's May 2023 World Energy Outlook, oil and gas operations ("scope 1 and 2") are responsible for under 15% of total energy-related emissions. In contrast, the use of oil and gas ("scope 3") results in 40% of emissions.
Pathways’ position on maintaining oil production while relying on technology to reduce emissions runs contradictory to the latest guidance from the IPCC. While the IPCC outlines a potential role for emissions abatement technologies such as CCS in the energy sector, it finds that such does not negate the need to substantially decline global fossil fuel use by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5°C. In modelled pathways to 1.5 °C, the IPCC estimates significant reduction in coal, oil, and gas use globally by 2050 (equivalent to 95%, 60%, and 45% respectively, compared to 2019 levels). The IPCC explains that even “when paired with CCS opportunities,” only a fraction of available fossil fuel reserves can be used in scenarios consistent with global mitigation goals (IPCC, AR6, WG3, Energy Systems). Pathways' claim that CCS can produce “net-zero oil” through its application to oil production and processing arguably overlooks the limited potential for emissions abatement in the oil value chain. CCS is not easily applied in many end use applications where oil continues to be the dominant fuel type, like the transport sector. The IEA finds that the transport sector accounted for more than 60% of oil consumption in the world in 2018. For more details on IPCC’s recommendations on CCS applications across sectors, please consult InfluenceMap’s December 2023 Corporate Advocacy on Carbon Capture and Storage report.
Despite overwhelming advocacy for CCS, Pathways has raised contradictory concerns about the reliability of CCS technologies to policymakers and has opposed government mandates for CCS.
In October 2023 comments on the Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) which propose CCS adoption to decarbonize Canada’s electricity grid, Pathways appeared to state that CCS might not effectively capture emissions from cogeneration units in the oil sands sector, emphasizing the “uncertainty associated with current carbon capture technology’s ability to capture low concentration CO2 from cogeneration.” The submission also claimed that CCS at cogeneration units are “among some of the most economically challenged emission reduction projects.” Following this, in November 2023, the group’s comments to the government recommended that it “introduce flexibility and acknowledge best efforts” in meeting emissions performance standard using CCS for gas plants.
Pathways’ submission also endorsed the comments by the Business Council of Alberta (BCA) which raised serious concerns about the readiness of CCS, mainly the minimum 90-95% capture rate requirement that is widely recognized by government and independent research as a standard for capturing emissions from point sources. BCA claimed that the performance standard for CCS under the CER is “currently unachievable” with fossil gas combined cycle plants, stating “existing CCS technology cannot meet the 95% capture rates.” In addition, BCA noted:
Pathways also raised concerns with CCS standards proposed for the fossil gas plants in a summary of its comments on its website in November 2023. The group stated that “current technologies (e.g., CCS) may not be able to meet the proposed emission performance standard,” and appeared to highlight the “technology readiness” of CCS for fossil gas plants. It stated that the CCS standards proposed in the regulation would “re-prioritize” CCS deployment and result in less emissions reduction in the oil sands sector.
Pathways member Cenovus raised concerns around CCS in its November 2023 comments on the CER, arguing that gas plants with 95% capture rates have not been demonstrated and adding that "hypothetical technological advancements should not form the basis of government regulations.” Suncor’s November 2023 comments also raised similar concerns on CCS for thermal generation plants.
Through this second step in the playbook, the Pathways builds on its success in influencing public perception of oil and gas and promotes CCS technology to secure government financing for oil sands projects. However, the group's messaging fails to acknowledge the key limitations in emissions abatement achievable through CCS, ignoring the "scope 3" emissions that arise even if the production emissions ("scope 1 and 2") are eliminated. Furthermore, Pathways' public support for CCS contrasts with its direct communications with the government where it has raised concerns on the technological feasibility and reliability of CCS. These tactics feed into the third and the final step in the group's playbook, by positioning CCS as an alternative to real climate regulation.
Pathways' advocacy on climate regulations in Canada is highly negative, in clear contrast with the climate-conscious brand it has attempted to build.
Pathways has stated that climate policy design should be built upon “sound policy principles that enable free market forces” for cost-effective technology-neutral solutions economy wide, and should treat all industries equitably and avoid duplication. It appears to call for the withdrawal of regulations and instead "refocus efforts on enacting necessary legislation, advancing fiscal programs, and developing regulatory approval processes that enable and incent decarbonization investments." Similarly, Cenovus claimed that regulations targeting a specific sector are a "fundamental deviation” from the underlying principles forming the basis for carbon pricing, arguing that "a molecule of CO2 emitted from an electricity generator fundamentally bares no difference to a molecule emitted from a combustion engine, residential or commercial furnace, manufacturing facility, or volcanic eruption.”
InfluenceMap has tracked the group’s engagement on key climate regulations in Canada and identified negative advocacy across all assessed.
| Policy/Regulation | Position |
|---|---|
| Oil and Gas Emissions Cap | Advocated to withdraw |
| Methane Regulations for the Oil & Gas Sector | Criticized the regulations and advocated to weaken |
| Clean Electricity Regulations | Advocated for delays and exemptions |
| Carbon Tax Amendments | Appeared unsupportive |
Pathways has led an active campaign against the Oil and Gas Emissions Cap, with its direct advocacy on the policy growing more negative over the years.
The federal government's proposed cap on oil and gas emissions would reduce oil and gas emissions by 30% below 2005 levels in 2030. Pathways’ advocacy against the cap has centered on the impact of the policy on the oil sands. In comments submitted to the government in October 2022, Pathways stated that the cap was "significantly higher than what is achievable". In February 2024, its comments on the regulatory framework for the cap, as presented in the website, strongly criticized the policy, calling it "unnecessary and unworkable" and stating that it "does not align with fundamental principles for effective climate policy.”
In February 2023, Pathways Vice President Mark Cameron stated that emissions targets "were probably not completely based on accurate data and are probably overly ambitious,” per a report from Reuters. In March 2024, Pathways, alongside several Calgary businesses, signed an open letter to Minister of Environment and Climate Change Steven Guilbeault calling for withdrawal of the cap. The letter also argued that the proposed cap "sets us up to miss targets – not meet them, running counter to actual emissions reduction” and would "lead to a drop in production." Signatories to the letter also included Pathways members such as Cenovus, Canadian Natural, and Suncor alongside other industry groups such as the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, Canadian Chamber of Commerce, and Business Council of Alberta.
Pathways member companies have emphasized similar points. Suncor's 2023 CDP Climate Change response disclosed its engagement with the federal government for an emissions cap that "does not force curtailment." Cenovus' ex-CEO Alex Pourbaix stated to Calgary Herald in July 2022 that the cap "could lead to shutting in production at a time when the world is literally crying out for more oil and gas production.”
Pathways and its members have heavily criticized Canada's Methane Regulations for the Oil and Gas Sector.
Canada’s federal methane regulations seek to achieve at least a 75% reduction in oil and gas sector methane emissions by 2030, relative to 2012 levels. Pathways’ comments on the regulations in February 2024 advocated to weaken key aspects of the policy: it suggested excluding methane emissions from non-point sources (e.g., mines) and opposed the restrictions on flaring. It also raised concerns about the federal government’s "prescriptive and stringent" approach, and asked the government to consider the comments submitted by CAPP, which took a severe stance against the regulation.
Similar to the group's position, Pathways members Canadian Natural, Cenovus, and MEG Energy also submitted largely oppositional comments on the regulation, while ConocoPhillips appeared critical of certain aspects.
Pathways advocated to delay and weaken the draft Clean Electricity Regulations, with its member companies sharing its positions:
Pathways’ comments on the CER in October 2023 stated that the regulations would increase costs, undermine the competitiveness of the oil sands sector, and impact grid reliability. The group advocated for delaying the timeline from 2035 to 2050 and called for exemptions for co-generation plants. In November 2023, Pathways’ comments appeared to advocate to relax the 30 t CO2/GWh standard for electricity generation proposed by the government and recommended that the standard apply only to the electricity exported to the grid, instead of overall generation. In addition, it advocated for extending the deadline for applying the standard to existing units to 25 years since the commissioning, instead of 20 years proposed in the regulation.
Individual comments by members Cenovus, ConocoPhillips, and Suncor also offered negative positions on the policy.
Following industry consultations, the federal government suggested revisions to the draft CER in February 2024, which appear to be weaker than the original proposal.
Pathways’ comments on the amendment to Canada’s Output-Based Pricing System Regulations in December 2022 appeared unsupportive, citing increased costs and the need to protect the oil sands. Comments filed by Suncor in December 2022 were similar.
The final step in the Pathways playbook shows that the group's pro-climate messaging and advocacy for CCS is a smokescreen for increasing production and opposing regulation. Despite a commitment to decarbonize the oil sands sector — a goal widely promoted in public communications and policy advocacy — the group has opposed multiple Canadian policies that target the decarbonization of sector, such as the Oil and Gas Emissions Cap, Clean Electricity Regulations, and Methane Regulations. Its persistent influence over public discourse through advertising enables the group to position itself as a climate leader in Canada, while continuing to undertake advocacy that promotes oil sands production and weakens the key policies of the federal government.
