We are pleased to share the latest edition of InfluenceMap's Transport Bulletin. This bulletin highlights recent insights into the advocacy of major companies and their industry associations. This issue covers:
UK SAF Mandate: New documents obtained via Freedom of Information request reveal the aviation industry’s opposition to a UK sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandate
EU 2035 Cars and Vans CO₂ Target: Active automaker engagement on the EU’s 2035 zero-emission CO₂ target for cars and vans
US Autos Emissions Standards Lawsuits: Oil interests are poised to clash with Ford Motor and certain electric utility companies on lawsuits over the Biden administration’s GHG emissions standards
In mid-2023, the UK government requested consultation responses on its proposed sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandate. The mandate proposed targets for both SAFs and “power-to-liquid" fuels (PtLs), which are produced synthetically using renewable energy. PtLs have greater emissions reduction potential than SAFs but currently require research and development to become commercially available.
The aviation industry has supported SAFs as the primary, near-term solution to decarbonize the aviation industry without reducing demand. Yet consultation responses from the aviation industry’s engagement with the proposed SAF mandate, accessed via Freedom of Information request, show that many groups advocated to weaken key targets under the SAF mandate. This calls into question the integrity of some airlines’ public pronouncements promoting SAFs as essential to meet 2050 net zero goals. For example:
Airlines for America strongly opposed both the SAF mandate and synthetic fuel sub-mandate, questioning the legality of the mandate’s application to its members. Boeing also opposed the PtL sub-mandate.
Airlines UK supported a low-ambition 2025 mandate and appeared unsupportive of a 10% 2030 target, while stating a 2040 mandate is possible with support. Airlines UK also appeared unsupportive of a PtL mandate before 2040.
IATA and Virgin Atlantic similarly advocated for a delay of the PtL sub-mandate until 2035, but both groups supported the primary SAF mandate, with Virgin Atlantic urging high ambition.
Airbus also supported high-ambition SAF mandate trajectories from 2030 but supported a slower ramp-up. For the PtL sub-mandate, Airbus conversely supported high ambition until 2035 but lower ambition in the longer term.
More positively, BP supported “ambitious” SAF and PtL mandates, while Neste advocated for high ambition scenarios for both, as well as the introduction of penalties for non-compliance. EasyJet and International Airlines Group also supported the mandate, however this support appeared conditional on supportive measures.
Following engagement, the UK government announced that its SAF mandate would take a “medium ambition” trajectory, beginning in January 2025 at 2%, increasing to 10% in 2030, and increasing to 22% in 2040. A power-to-liquid (synthetic kerosene) obligation will begin in 2028 at 0.2%, increasing to 3.5% in 2040.
To reduce GHG emissions from the automotive sector, the EU adopted new CO₂ standards for cars and vans in April 2023. The new standards set a 55% CO₂ reduction target for 2030 and a 100% zero-emission CO₂ target by 2035, effectively phasing out the sale of new ICE-powered cars and vans in 2035. In 2023, at the last minute, the regulation was weakened by the inclusion of a non-binding exemption clause that could allow the sale of combustion engine cars running on e-fuels to continue after 2035, likely prompted by intense negative industry lobbying. While the policy is set to be reviewed in 2026, in July 2024 Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, vowed not to weaken green policies, including the 2035 target for cars and vans. This followed pressure from the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) to roll back the policy after the June 2024 EU parliamentary elections.
InfluenceMap analysis finds that some automakers continued to state their support for the standards, while others pushed back on the targets.
The European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) and Renault had both negative and positive recent engagement on the regulation:
Multiple public statements in 2023 from Luca de Meo, CEO of Renault and current president of ACEA, appeared unsupportive of the 100% 2035 CO₂ target, such as in an interview reported by Auto Journal in August 2023.
In July 2024, de Meo stressed the need for “a little more flexibility in the schedule” regarding Europe’s 2035 target in comments reported by Automotive News.
However, de Meo had previously noted in a February 2024 statement reported by Automotive News that “the industry had already invested billions in electrification, and this would be wasted if the combustion engine phase out was dropped.”
Moreover, in a May 2024 Euractiv op-ed, ACEA’s Director-General conditioned the association’s support for the 2030 and 2035 CO₂ car and van targets on the rapid expansion of EV charging infrastructure.
Several automakers appeared unsupportive of the target:
BMW CEO Oliver Zipse called the 2035 target “naive” in a May 2024 FAZ interview.
Both Volkswagen’s and BMW’s CEOs have also criticized the near-term 2025 target in statements reported by Automotive News in March 2024. Volkswagen CEO Oliver Blume appeared unsupportive of the EU’s existing 2025 CO₂ target, criticizing the compliance penalties for not meeting the rule, while supporting the 2035 zero-emissions CO₂ target, saying it gives automakers planning certainty.
And several automakers showed support for the targets:
Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares appeared to support the EU’s 2035 target in February comments reported by Reuters, while emphasizing the need for subsidies.
In June 2024, in an apparent response to the EPP’s public push to weaken the 2035 targets, brands such as Volvo Cars and Ford Motor publicly supported the regulation.
A Volvo Cars Executive noted that overturning the 2035 zero-emission target now would be “terrible” in a June 2024 press briefing.
A June 2024 joint statement by the Platform for Electromobility, whose members include For Motor, Renault, Tesla and Volvo Cars amongst others, also urged the European Union to “safeguard the agreement settled between the Parliament and the Council ensuring all new cars and vans sold by 2035 will be zero emission.”
A range of utility companies and associations also favored the rule, expressing strong support for the standards and the 2035 target in a July 2024 joint letter to new members of Parliament. Signatories to the letter included AVERE, ChargeUp Europe, SmartEn, Eurelectric, and EuropeOn. They emphasized the target as a key enabler for long-term investment, as well as for the Green Deal’s decarbonization objectives.
In recent months, the Biden administration’s major transport regulations—light- and heavy-duty GHG and fuel economy standards—have faced a litany of lawsuits fielded by US states and supported primarily by the oil industry. The policies in question pose a significant threat to oil demand in the United States. In response, more positive auto manufacturers and electric utility interests have stepped in to support the Biden administration’s rules and accelerate the decarbonization of road transport in the US.
The American Petroleum, Institute (API), representing members ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, Chevron, and others, filed lawsuits challenging the EPA’s light- and medium-duty GHG emissions standards, heavy-duty GHG emissions standards, and Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards in June 2024. In each petition for review, API stated that the rules were “arbitrary and capricious” or exceeded the agency’s authority. Several auto dealerships and farming associations, including the American Farm Bureau Federation, joined each of the petitions. The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) also filed a lawsuit opposing the EPA’s light- and medium-duty GHG emissions standards in June 2024. Meanwhile, Valero Energy filed a lawsuit specifically seeking to overturn the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) corporate average fuel economy standards.
In support of the rules, Ford Motor and the Zero Emission Transportation Association have moved to defend the light-duty GHG emissions standards in legal challenges. The Zero Emission Transportation Association (ZETA) represents a range of electric utilities and transportation companies, including Pacific Gas & Electric Company, Consolidated Edison, Tesla, Uber, and Siemens. It advocated to maintain the light-duty vehicle emissions standards in order to drive electric vehicle adoption for public health and economic benefits. In Ford’s motion to intervene in support of both the light- and heavy-duty emissions standards, the company stated its support for a stable regulatory environment and opposed “flip-flopping or changing standards.” So far, no major automakers appear to have directly intervened to protect the CAFE standards.