Japan’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan (SEP), finalized in 2025, outlines the country’s projected energy mix for 2040, with thermal power – comprising coal, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and oil – expected to account for 30-40% of total electricity generation. This reliance on fossil fuels persists despite advice from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that continued investments in coal and gas infrastructure risk locking in high emissions, making it challenging to stay within the 1.5°C global warming threshold.
The 7th SEP sets a 2040 renewable energy target of 40-50%, trailing international benchmarks such as the IPCC’s projected 54% median share by 2030 and the 60% by 2035 modeled for Japan by the Institute for Global Environmental Studies (IGES), a leading Japanese think tank affiliated with the Ministry of Environment. This conservative target signals a potential disconnect between Japan’s energy policy and global, science-aligned pathways to 1.5°C climate targets.
InfluenceMap’s analysis suggests that the new Strategic Energy Plan reflects substantial influence from Japan’s electric power industry, which has historically favored fossil fuels and nuclear power over ambitious renewable energy adoption. This briefing examines the climate policy engagement of Japan’s eight largest power-generating companies, along with eight key industry associations to which they belong and fund.
Findings indicate that Japan’s electric utilities often employ global fossil fuel industry narratives to defend the continued use of coal, gas, and nuclear power, framing them as essential for energy security and economic stability. Notably, JERA, Chubu Electric, and J-POWER have been identified as the most resistant companies to coal phaseout efforts. Across the sector, these companies and their affiliated trade groups - except for the Renewable Energy Association for Sustainable Power Supply (REASP) - have generally advocated for maintaining thermal power without clearly differentiating between coal and gas. This stance often relies on the speculative future potential of technologies like hydrogen, ammonia, and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), despite their high costs and uncertain scalability.
While some elements within the sector, including REASP, have supported stronger renewable energy targets and fossil fuel reductions, broader industry resistance to rapid decarbonization remains pronounced. REASP has actively promoted offshore wind, solar panel recycling, and post-Feed-in Tariff (FIT) reforms, reflecting a more progressive approach. However, major utilities, despite publicly endorsing renewables as a 'major power source,' frequently resist critical acceleration measures, citing high FIT costs and perceived technical limitations.
The electric power industry wields significant policy influence through well-established networks like Keidanren (the Japan Business Federation), a powerful business group with over 1,500 corporate members and deep ties to government policy decision-making. This is reinforced by related associations such as the Federation of Electric Power Companies (FEPC), the Japan Carbon Frontier Organization (JCOAL), and the Japan Atomic Industrial Forum (JAIF), where many of the assessed companies hold key leadership roles. These relationships afford the electric power sector significant advantages in policymaking forums – both within Keidanren and in METI committees – through staffing, technical expertise, and policy credibility unmatched by most other sectors.
Some power industry players have also maintained a dual stance on public support of energy, opposing financial support for renewable energy on cost grounds while simultaneously seeking substantial subsidies for fossil fuel projects and emerging technologies like hydrogen, ammonia, and CCUS. This selective approach to public funding highlights the sector’s broader effort to protect its existing business model amid growing pressure for decarbonization and proliferation of renewable energy.
While some corporate voices in Japan are advocating for more ambitious renewable energy targets (e.g., the Japan Climate Leaders’ Partnership (JCLP), representing over 220 major corporations, recently called for 60% renewables by 2035 in the 7th Energy Plan), InfluenceMap’s previous analysis indicates that the core influence over energy policy remains concentrated within the power sector, heavy industry, and Keidanren, which play a critical role in shaping the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) decision-making process.
Encouragingly, InfluenceMap’s recent assessment shows that Keidanren’s climate policy score has improved from D- to C- between 2020 and the present, signaling a shift from strategic opposition toward a more mixed stance. Furthermore, in a notable break from tradition, Keidanren also appointed a representative from the financial sector as its new chair – a move that may indicate a broader and more inclusive approach to corporate influence on Japan’s climate and energy policy. This development could open the door for greater representation of ‘demand-side’ sectors such as construction, technology, retail, and finance, potentially advancing more progressive climate outcomes.
Also promisingly, recent analyses from the METI and progressive business coalitions like REASP indicate a growing recognition that renewable energy systems could effectively support Japan’s '3E+S' energy policy goals: Energy security, Economic efficiency, Environmental sustainability, and Safety. This shifting perspective may lead both industry and policymakers to reconsider the long-term roles of fossil fuels and nuclear power in shaping Japan’s energy future.
