New analysis by InfluenceMap finds that Toyota, Honda, Suzuki, and Gabungan Industri Kendaraan Bermotor Indonesia (GAIKINDO), Indonesia’s largest automotive industry association, advocated for automotive policy changes between 2023 and 2026 that could hinder a full transition to battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and prolong reliance on imported oil. The automakers, which accounted for approximately 74% of vehicle sales in Indonesia in 2025 and hold key leadership roles in GAIKINDO, hold significant influence over the country’s transport decarbonization trajectory.
The findings come as Indonesia seeks to reduce its dependence on imported energy. As of 2024, the country imported 38.79% of its gasoline, while the transport sector accounted for 36% of total energy consumption, with oil and gas representing 85% of the sector’s energy use. Following recent global energy price shocks linked to conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, Indonesia’s President has repeatedly emphasized the need to reduce reliance on imported fuels and strengthen the country’s energy security through electrification. With discussion on a National Electric Vehicle Roadmap underway and new electric vehicle incentives expected in 2026, advocacy to prolong internal combustion engine (ICE)-powered vehicles could derail Indonesia’s electrification ambitions.
Contradicting government ambitions to rapidly reduce oil imports, the analysis finds that automotive industry advocacy sought to secure a long-term role for ICE-powered hybrid vehicles. Following this advocacy, the government extended incentives designed for BEVs to these vehicles in December 2024. The automotive industry has since furthered its advocacy push to promote incentives for ICE-powered vehicles ahead of the announcement of new incentives later this year.
To promote ICE-powered vehicles as advantageous in Indonesia, Toyota, Honda, Suzuki, and GAIKINDO advanced three core narratives: that incentives for combustion-engine vehicles support market growth, that hybrid vehicles are better suited to Indonesia's circumstances, and that transport decarbonization policies should remain "technology neutral." Using publicly available evidence, the analysis disputes these claims: EV sales in Indonesia have grown rapidly over the last 5 years, while research shows BEVs deliver substantially greater emissions reductions than hybrids even under Indonesia’s current electricity mix.
The findings build on recent InfluenceMap research showing that the automotive industry, primarily Toyota and the Japanese Automotive Manufacturers Association (JAMA), is pursuing a coordinated cross-market strategy to slow the transition to electric vehicles across several emerging markets, including Indonesia. That report found that JAMA repeatedly pushed these arguments directly to Indonesian ministers through the annual Indonesia-Japan automotive dialogue. This included proposing a program to study a “Multi Pathway Approach to achieving zero emissions in Indonesia” in 2023 and launching a biofuel co-creation task force, including collaboration between JAMA, Japanese and Indonesian ministers, and GAIKINDO, to strengthen national biofuel policies in 2025. Following these conversations, ministers echoed the industry group’s language on a “multi-pathway” approach and alternative fuels.
While hybrid vehicles can run on alternative fuels, gasoline remains the primary fuel for road transport in Indonesia. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change advises that while hybrids may be a temporary solution in areas with a carbon-intensive energy mix, they offer limited mitigation due to reliance on combustion engines. As such, efforts to delay a full transition to battery-electric vehicles may also slow progress toward reducing the country's dependence on imported oil.
With Indonesia's National EV Roadmap being discussed and a future vehicle incentive framework expected in 2026, upcoming policy decisions could have significant implications for both transport decarbonization and the country's ambitions to achieve energy self-sufficiency.
Muhammad Risky, Indonesia Analyst at InfluenceMap, said:
Indonesia's dependence on imported fuel means that transport decarbonization and energy security are intertwined. The government has recognized this and made energy self-sufficiency a national goal. Yet many of the industry's proposals point in the opposite direction, prolonging Indonesia’s foreign fossil fuel dependence. As policymakers finalize the country's EV roadmap, they have an opportunity to better align transport policy with Indonesia's energy security ambitions.
Emily Bowen, Media Manager, InfluenceMap (London)
Email: emily.bowen {@} influencemap.org
